A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
